Market Watch - 13 Sept. 2024

Since last week, New Listings, AOC (Active Option Contract) and Pending have increased while Closed Properties decreased. The Lease Market increased Listings and Pending Properties with a sharply lower-than-expected number of Closed (leased) Properties. This is the lowest number of leased properties since 29 March 2024.

Let’s see how we got here.

After holding on interest rates while unemployment slowly increased, The Fed announced plans to decrease rates soon (18 Sept. 2024) and possibly several times later this year because inflation has stabilized while unemployment became higher than preferred.

The result is lower interest rates to borrow money. This change shows up in both the residential housing market and lease markets. Both have been sluggish for the last few months in anticipation of lower lending rates.

The timing is unfortunate because many home buyers use tax returns in the spring to boost their down payment. Additionally, they tend to move at the end of the school year to be settled before the beginning of the new education cycle in the fall. Without this available cash and unemployment affecting potential buyers, the housing market may not get the long-awaited bounce – especially since school has started for the year.

When we look at the Market Watch Trends, we move through time from the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 (left) to this week’s market (right). The most stunning observation is the prolonged inventory increase. It’s a reversal of the pandemic anomaly from October 2020 through March 2022 when housing inventories Closed faster than new Listings arrived.

The number of Closed houses remained relatively stable and cyclical since 2020. This reflects a constant and sustained influx of new residents to the DFW metro area. During this time, local home prices first increased due to shortages and interest rates later increased due to The Fed lending policies. The combination of factors made housing less affordable to most folks.

We’ve seen more houses enter the market rather than leave since May 2022 when The Fed first increased interest rates by .5%. This adjustment translated to housing inventory and options for individual buyers. However, the cost of borrowing plus inflation has kept many buyers on the sidelines despite significant increases in lease prices.

Meanwhile, the Lease Housing Market has steadily increased volume in New Listings and Closed (leased) properties since 2021. An average of more than 1,000 homes were leased each week in 2024 while even more new listings arrived on the market. This week had one of the highest gaps at 524 more lease homes entering the market than leaving.

DFW is different than the overall U.S. housing market. People move here each day from other worldwide locations. Overpriced houses sit on the market, but most houses haven’t lost value (appreciation). They entered the market too high while the market awaits their correction to the ideal price.

A balanced housing market has six months of housing inventory. With a few localized exceptions, DFW won’t be balanced by definition soon. It’s currently a “Sellers’ Market,” which means Sellers have some advantages over Buyers when negotiating prices and terms. However, a house sells or leases for what an owner takes, and a Buyer/Tenant pays in the closing documents.

I’ve Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Home certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark@kw.com
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #trends #stats #investors #home #house #RealEstate #VeteranOwned

National Housing Market Shortages

The market has changed since the end of last summer. It's still a "Seller's market" in most DFW Metroplex cities with less than six months of inventory. However, Buyers have more options for new and preowned houses.

June is traditionally the hottest buying month of the year with most of those closings happening in July. Parents need to pick a house soon if they want their kids in a specific school district before the new school year starts.

Check your specific area on the National Association of REALTORS Housing Shortage Tracker.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #Housing #HousingShortage #map #home #house #HousingMarket #NewConstruction #VeteranOwned

NAR Economic Instant Reaction

If you’re on the fence, get a house while there is selection. If the rate drops below 6%, expect all the pent-up demand to rush forward and drive up prices.

If you’re a Veteran, you MUST act now. There are some representation changes coming that will leave you at the mercy of the Sellers until the government makes some major VA rule changes. We all know how rapidly the VA adapts, so it’s best to buy a house now rather than in July or later. Eligible Vets can get a $0 down loan. You will need about 2.5% closing costs. Talk to me about options to reduce that amount too.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #TimeToBuy #buyer #Veteran #economy #VAbenefits #MortgageRates # house #home

It's Prime Time to Sell a house!

DID YOU KNOW…
The Spring house shopping season started with a bang. Homesellers have just a few weeks to put their homes on the market during the best week to sell. Historically, listings posted the week of April 14 have seen the strongest buyer demand, the highest listing prices, and fewest days on the market, according to Realtor.com.

If a house is in show-ready condition, I have the skills and strategies to have it on the market within 24 hours. Otherwise, I can help determine what needs to be affordably done to get top dollar for your house without a major overhaul. Please call, text or email to set an appointment to see how I can get you the most money in the shortest time with the least inconvenience.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #TimeToSell #seller #house #market #MarketTiming #PrimeTime #ListMyHouse #home

NAR Reaction to Consumer Price Inflation

Inflation didn't slow at the expected rate, but it appears that a “soft landing” may be possible without a recession. Don't expect a massive drop in mortgage rates. However, the second half of the year looks promising.

That said, on-the-fence buyers will jump back into the market when rates hit their desired target. Each 1% of mortgage rate change equals about 10% in buying power. For example, a buyer who could afford a $500K house today, could afford a $550K house after a 1% drop. Unfortunately, prices could easily increase more than any saved amount in a multiple-offer market.

Buy a house now while there are some choices and still some bargains. You can refinance when rates drop significantly.

I’ve Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #market #rates #inflation #correction

Market Watch - 5 Jan. 2024

This year’s real estate market start is typical but filled with optimism about possible interest rate decreases. All residential real estate market categories have increased since last week. After a December cyclical slump for the holidays, January normally has a surge of listings.

To have sales, there must be inventory to sell. While a balanced market has about six months of housing inventory, most local cities have less than three months. A few cities have less than two months of inventory available. These are strong seller markets.

Meanwhile, the lease market remains strong with New Listings, Pending and Closed properties all increasing. While it has consistently and significantly grown in volume since 2021, the lease market hasn’t been inverted for more than one week since 3 June 2022. Lease homes are available. Property owners have cash flow.

Each 1% change in an interest rate equals about a 10% change in buying power for conventional loans. If the market tightens in the spring with few houses and lower interest rates, available lease properties may be liquidated (sold) to capture profits. More Listed and Closed sales will happen while the Lease market may have shortages and higher rental prices.

If you want to purchase a property (for either investment or residence) or lock down a lease, consider this your final warning while the choices of location, condition or price are limited but available. If you are ready to move, call me soon. As a professional photographer and FAA-licensed drone pilot, I can get a photo-ready house or lease property onto the market within 24 hours if needed.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #NewListings #Pending #Leased

Market Watch - 4 Aug. 2023

Since last week New Listings are flat while AOC and Pending Properties have declined and Closed Properties have increased.

Meanwhile, the lease market had normal cyclical changes as a new month begins with increases in New Listings and Closed Properties while Pending Properties decreased.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #NewListings #Pending #Leased

Market Watch – 30 June 2023

Click on the photos to enlarge.

Since last week, New Listings are flat while there are increases in AOC, Pending and Closed Properties. The Lease Market has high Pending and Closed Properties as we’d expect on the last day of the month, but New Listings are lower than expected.

It has been a while since I showed y’all the numbers that I track each week. Let’s see how we got here.

After hitting a pause on rate increases two weeks ago, The Fed announced that it plans to increase rates soon and possibly several times because inflation is still higher than preferred. The Fed is also concerned about the Federal Deficit. The Federal Deficit is currently at $1.38T compared to the high point of $3.13T during the 2020 Pandemic (a $1.75T reduction over two years).

The result is higher interest rates to borrow money. This shows up in both the residential housing market and residential lease markets. Both had decreases in every category while June historically sees the highest number of closings.

When we look at the Market Watch Trends, we move through time from the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 (left) to the current market as of this morning (right). The most stunning observation should be that more houses were on the market and selling while we were in lockdown and wearing masks than we currently have. The appreciation on those houses was more than the interest rate. It was pure profit. The demand for houses supercharged appreciation and drove sales prices higher. People – especially corporate investors - were willing to risk their health for those historically-low interest rates. Please let that sink in.

With a few exceptions, we’ve seen more houses entering the market rather than leaving since May 2021 when the interest rates grew beyond investor appetite. This translates to housing inventory and options for individual buyers. However, the cost of borrowing has kept some buyers on the sidelines until earlier this year when there was a surge of pent-up demand – caused mostly by significant increases in the lease prices.

Meanwhile, the Lease Housing Market has run counter to the residential housing market. Volume has steadily increased in both New Listings and Closed (leased) properties. During this tracking period, lease listings first went over 1,000 in North Texas on 10 June 2022. During the same time, the first week with more than 1,000 Closings was 6 August 2021 – the next was 6 May 2022. In contrast, lease listings and closings have both been over a thousand each week since April 2023.

DFW is different than the overall U.S. housing market. More people move here each day. DFW doesn’t have negative prices like elsewhere. There are overpriced houses sitting on the market, but they haven’t lost value. They entered the market too high, and the market awaits their correction to the ideal price.

A balanced housing market has six months of housing inventory. DFW won’t be balanced by definition in the near future. It’s currently a “Sellers’ Market,” which means Sellers have some advantages over Buyers when negotiating prices and terms. However, a house sells for what a Seller takes, and a Buyer pays at the closing table.

I’ve Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Home certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #trends #stats #investors #home #house #RealEstate #VeteranOwned

Market Watch - 19 May 2023

Since last week New Listings and Closed Properties increased while Active Option Contract decreased and Properties Pending were flat on the residential market. The lease market had increases in all New Listings and Pending Properties while Closed Properties were flat.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #Pending #Leased #SellersMarket

Market Watch - 12 May 2023

Since last week everything on both the residential and lease markets have decreased. Since most graduations took place last week, expect this to be the calm before the summer shopping storm. Traditionally, June and July are the peak months for house sales. If you want to move, call me while there is still inventory.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #Pending #Leased #SellersMarket

Market Watch - 28 April 2023

Since last week New Listings and AOC have decreased while Pending and Closed Properties increased on the residential market. The market inverted with more properties closed than listed. Anecdotally, attendance at open houses has jumped dramatically along with multiple offers on well-marketed and located properties in Collin and Denton counties.

The lease market had increases in all categories but has not inverted since 3 March 2023.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #Pending #Leased #SellersMarket

Collin County Appreciation by Zip Code 2023

You may have gotten your tax assessment in the mail recently. If so, you have my sympathies. As you know, home sale prices rose significantly in early 2022 and then flattened in the fall. The damage to your taxes was already done by April.

The Homestead Exemption caps an assessment increase at 10% rather than the current approximate change amount on the attached sheet. If the assessed property is your primary residence, you need to ensure you have a Homestead Exemption. The deadline for it is April 30 each year. Follow this link for more information

There are several tax protest companies that will represent you for a fee if you don’t want to represent yourself. You have until May 15th to submit your protest in Collin County if you choose to protest.

If you pay mortgage insurance, please get detailed information from your REALTOR and send the information to your lender to have the mortgage insurance removed. If you don’t have a trusted REALTOR, I’m happy to help.

The loan-to-assessed value is a percentage by itself. Add principal payments plus any initial deposits, and your appreciation should easily be at 78% of county appraised value by now to drop the mortgage insurance – which only benefits the bank.

For additional information, please download any of my free real-estate guides. The Home Buyer’s Guide and Information of Value books have specific home maintenance information.

I’ve Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Home certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #RealEstate #taxes #PropertyTaxes #LTV #rates #appreciation #CollinCounty

Denton County Appreciation by Zip Code 2023

You may have gotten your tax assessment in the mail recently. If so, you have my sympathies. As you know, home sale prices rose significantly in early 2022 and then flattened in the fall. The damage to your taxes was already done by April.

The Homestead Exemption caps an assessment increase at 10% rather than the current approximate change amount on the attached sheet. If the assessed property is your primary residence, you need to ensure you have a Homestead Exemption. The deadline for it is April 30 each year. Follow this link for more information

There are several tax protest companies that will represent you for a fee if you don’t want to represent yourself. You have until May 15th to submit your protest in Collin County if you choose to protest.

If you pay mortgage insurance, please get detailed information from your REALTOR and send the information to your lender to have the mortgage insurance removed. If you don’t have a trusted REALTOR, I’m happy to help.

The loan-to-assessed value is a percentage by itself. Add principal payments plus any initial deposits, and your appreciation should easily be at 78% of county appraised value by now to drop the mortgage insurance – which only benefits the bank.

For additional information, please download any of my free real-estate guides. The Home Buyer’s Guide and Information of Value books have specific home maintenance information.

I’ve Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Home certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #RealEstate #taxes #PropertyTaxes #LTV #rates #appreciation #CollinCounty #DentonCounty

Market Watch - 7 April 2023

Since last week all categories have increased volume on the residential market. The lease market had a month-beginning cyclical increase in Closed Properties and decreases in Pending Properties with an unexpected increase in New Listings.

“Inventory” is the number of houses for sale on the listing service – both new and used. North Texas has 2.5 months of inventory this week according to the North Texas Real Estate Information System. A balanced market is six months of inventory. Nationally, we are short by millions of houses because there are fewer houses available than people who want to purchase. Therefore, we’re in a “Seller’s Market.”

A Seller’s Market is one where the Seller has advantages over the Buyer. A house in good condition in a desirable location that is priced aggressively (at or slightly below market) will often have multiple offers in a short time if it’s marketed correctly. This incentivizes Buyers to pay well over asking and request less in the negotiated items.

The most commonly negotiated items are sale price, repairs, termination days, earnest money, residential service contracts (warranties), as well as who pays for various other contractual requirements. Depending on the type of financing, a lender may restrict or limit which items can be negotiated. Meanwhile, a cash transaction has the most negotiation latitude and fewest restrictions.

I’m available to help sell your house and find your ideal next home.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #Pending #Leased #SellersMarket

Market Watch - 31 March 2023

Since last week New Listings, Pending Properties and Closed Properties have decreased while AOC Properties increased. The lease market had a month’s-end cyclical increase in Closed Properties and decreases in Pending Properties while New Listings also decreased.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #BankCollapse #Pending #Leased

Market Watch - 10 March 2023

Since last week New Listings, AOC and Pending Properties have increased while Closed Properties decreased. The lease market had increases in New Listings and Pending Properties while Closed Properties decreased.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed on Friday, 10 March 2023. The collapse is a significant problem for digital currencies and high-tech startup companies. To them, this has been compared to the 2008 collapse of the mortgage industry.

We don’t know what knock-on effects this will create outside of these two categories of bank customers. However, it could have a positive influence on mortgage rates for a minute or two.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #BankCollapse #Pending #Leased

Market Watch - 3 March 2023

Since last week all categories have increased. Similarly, the lease market had increases in New Listings and Closed Properties while Pending Properties were essentially flat.

This could indicate the beginning of a normal spring shopping cycle. However, both markets inverted and closed more than they listed. This is combined with anecdotal information that multiple offers have returned to the residential market while “interest lists” are creeping back into new construction.

Expect shortages and increased cost for labor and supplies related to construction and home repairs. Additionally, the Fed is prepared to risk a recession to tamp down inflation according to Bankrate. This position could mean higher costs to borrow money (i.e. mortgage loans).

In short, folks who aren’t where they want to be should make the move soon. Call, text or email me if you’re ready to buy now. I also know of innovative ways to buy now and sell your house afterward for its maximum price, in a short time with the least inconvenience.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #NewListings #Pending #Leased

Market Watch - 24 Feb. 2023

Since last week Pending and Closed properties increased while AOC was flat and New Listings decreased. Meanwhile, the lease market had decreases in New Listings and Closed Properties while Pending Properties were flat.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #NewListings #Pending #Leased

Market Watch - 10 Feb. 2023

Since last week New Listings, Pending Properties and Closed Properties have increased while AOC decreased. The ice storm at the beginning of February made it dangerous to travel in North Texas and caution was reflected in the housing market. This week, those delays appeared in the form of more listings and closings.

Meanwhile, the lease market had increases in New Listings and Pending Properties while Closed Properties decreased.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #NewListings #Pending #Leased

Market Watch - 20 Jan 2023

Since last week all main market categories increased. After a mostly inverted market (more houses sold than listed) from late November through the beginning of this year, it brings some optimism for the spring season. To have sales, there must be inventory to sell.

Meanwhile, the lease market was flat for New Listings and Pending Properties while Closed Properties increased. The lease market hasn’t been inverted since the week of 29 July 2022.

I've Got Your Six!

Mark M. Hancock, GRI, MRP, AHWD
REALTOR, New Build certified
214-862-7212
DFWmark.com

#DFWmark #REALTOR #MarketWatch #ResidentialMarket #LeaseMarket #RealEstate #Sold #NewListings #Pending #Leased